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Multimodal Feasibility

The core project hypothesis is that VLF radio data may add useful predictive signal when combined with seismic and astronomical context.

Early Questions

  • Which VLF datasets are available for Italy-relevant stations or reception paths?
  • Do VLF records have timestamps precise enough for seismic window alignment?
  • What licensing permits reuse and derived features?
  • Which astronomical and geomagnetic indexes are available at useful cadence?
  • Can all sources be aligned to UTC windows without leaking future information?

First Multimodal Window

Use the seismic smoke window as the first alignment target:

  • region: Italy, with Central Italy subset
  • window: 7 days
  • seismic target: event with magnitude >= 3.0
  • VLF features: Cumiana live image availability first, then image-derived signal summaries
  • astronomical features: USNO lunar phase, NOAA solar and geomagnetic indexes

Evaluation Rule

Build seismic-only baselines first, then compare:

  1. seismic-only
  2. seismic plus VLF
  3. seismic plus astronomical
  4. seismic plus VLF plus astronomical

Only treat multimodal features as useful if they improve held-out performance and calibration after ablation testing.