Astronomical and Geomagnetic Feasibility
This document consolidates feasibility findings, useful features, endpoints, and archive details for lunar phase, solar radio flux, and geomagnetic indices.
1. Feasibility Findings and Decisions
- Lunar Phase Data: Fully confirmed. We use USNO APIs to generate lunar cycle context relative to prediction windows.
- Solar and Geomagnetic Indices: Fully confirmed. While live NOAA SWPC JSON files are rolling, historical archives exist for solar radio flux (F10.7) and Kp planetary indices.
- Decision: Use NOAA solar-cycle monthly historical JSON for early coarse features. Do not use NOAA SWPC rolling Kp, Dst, GOES X-ray, or daily F10.7 feeds for historical backtests when historical archive endpoints are available.
2. Ingest Source Inventory
| Modality / Source | URL / Endpoint | Coverage / Resolution | Backtest / Archive Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| USNO Moon Phase | https://aa.usno.navy.mil/api/moon/phases/date |
Specific phase event dates (new, first quarter, full, last quarter) | Usable: Moon phase endpoint is stable and queryable. |
| NOAA Solar Cycle (Monthly) | https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/json/solar-cycle/observed-solar-cycle-indices.json |
Historical monthly sunspots and F10.7 (2004–2026) | Usable: Coarse historical context. |
| GFZ Kp/ap Index | https://kp.gfz.de/app/files/Kp_ap_since_1932.txt |
3-hour planetary Kp/ap slots since 1932 | Usable: CC BY 4.0 licensed historical archive. |
| Kyoto WDC Dst (Final) | https://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dst_final/ |
Monthly hourly Dst indices (1957–2020) | Usable (non-commercial licence restriction). |
| Kyoto WDC Dst (Provisional) | https://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dst_provisional/ |
Monthly hourly Dst indices (2021–2026) | Usable (non-commercial licence restriction). |
| NOAA/NCEI GOES XRS | https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/instruments/solar-space-observing/particle-detectors/sem/goes/access/science/xrs/ |
Science-quality GOES 8–15 XRS NetCDF files (e.g., 2010–2020) | Usable: High-resolution X-ray flux profiles. |
| Space Weather Canada F10.7 | https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solar_flux_data/daily_flux_values/fluxtable.txt |
Daily F10.7 solar radio flux since 2004 | Usable: Detailed daily solar activity indicator. |
| NOAA SWPC Kp (1m) | https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/json/planetary_k_index_1m.json |
1-minute rolling planetary index | Not archival (live feed only). |
| NOAA GOES X-ray (1m) | https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/json/goes/primary/xrays-7-day.json |
7-day rolling 1-minute averages | Not archival (live feed only). |
3. Window Feature Alignment
For each prediction/feature window (e.g. 7-day or hourly window), we extract the following features:
- Lunar Context: Distance in days/hours to the nearest full moon and new moon.
- Geomagnetic Activity: Mean, maximum, variance, and missing count of the Kp and ap indices.
- Solar Activity: Daily or monthly F10.7 solar radio flux (observed and adjusted) and monthly sunspot number (SSN).
- X-Ray Flux: GOES XRS science flux averages, peak magnitudes, and energy band distributions.
4. Normalization and Code Interfaces
To fetch daily astronomy/space-weather sources (e.g., USNO moon phases and NOAA solar-cycle indices):
PYTHONPATH=src python3 -m elfquake.cli fetch-astronomy --date 2026-06-29
To fetch GFZ Kp/ap historical text archive:
PYTHONPATH=src python3 -m elfquake.cli fetch-gfz-kp-ap
To fetch Space Weather Canada daily F10.7:
PYTHONPATH=src python3 -m elfquake.cli fetch-f107-daily